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Dubai real GDP falls 2.3% in first half of 2026 as trade and transport slow

1 min read

Wooden dhows moored along Dubai Creek with older low-rise buildings behind them Economy
Wooden dhows moored along Dubai Creek with older low-rise buildings behind them

Output reached AED 473 billion in real terms; finance and health grew while trade and transport, hit by the regional conflict, contracted.

Dubai's real gross domestic product fell 2.3% in the first half of 2026 to AED 473 billion, from AED 484 billion a year earlier, according to Dubai Data and Statistics Establishment figures reported by Gulf News. At current prices, GDP was AED 505 billion, up 0.2%.

Trade, the emirate's biggest sector, fell 6% and transportation and storage contracted 7.4%, Intellinews reported, as the war in the region disrupted shipping, aviation and travel. Other sectors grew: financial and insurance activities expanded 8.8% and health 14.3%.

The figures follow national data showing UAE GDP up 0.4% in the first half, with a 2.1% fall in the second quarter. Dubai's heavier reliance on trade, logistics, aviation and tourism made it more exposed to the disruption than the economy as a whole.

Later indicators suggest activity has picked up since mid-year. The UAE Purchasing Managers' Index was 55.3 in September, and Dubai International Airport's monthly passenger numbers rose from 3.5 million in April to 6.3 million in July.

For investors, the split matters: finance and health carried on growing through the disruption, while trade and transport depend on regional shipping and flight routes returning to normal.

Sources